A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Alert

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."